Post
Estimated drop rates for Abyssal Black, Dawn, Game Board, and Polish Stone
3-Line Summary
1. The base drop rate of Blackheart is 0.4%,Dawn's drop rate is 2.5%,Guardian Angel Ring's drop rate is 5.3%, Ring Box's drop rate is 1.5%, and Refinement Stone's drop rate (Hard difficulty) is estimated to be 3.3%.
2. The drop rates of the above 4 rewards are estimated to follow a linear function.
3. Ring Boxes and Refinement Stones have different drop rates depending on the boss difficulty, but the detailed figures are unknown.
0. Reason for writing this post
Previous post:Meso Acquisition Rate vs. Item Drop Rate, Buff Freezers vs. Buff Pets Efficiency Summary
To summarize the previous post: "Meso Acquisition Rate is more efficient than Item Drop Rate," and "Buff Freezers are better than Buff Pets." Most people understand that Buff Freezers are better than Buff Pets, and there is no room for debate, but many people questioned the point that "Meso Acquisition Rate is more efficient than Item Drop Rate," and I myself also had doubts. If you only hunt 100%, Meso Acquisition Rate is undoubtedly better than Item Drop Rate, but Meso Acquisition Rate does not affect boss rewards, while Item Drop Rate also affects boss rewards.
However, unlike the basic drop rates of Fragments and Gemstones, which are somewhat known through exploration, the application of item drop rates toBlackheart, Dawn, Ring Box, and Refinement Stone does not have clear statisticswhich was the problem.
Therefore, before accurately calculating the efficiency of boss rewards, I would like to first write a post estimating the drop rates of Blackheart, Dawn, Ring Box, and Refinement Stone. Originally, I was going to write about the boss reward efficiency according to Item Drop Rate as well, but it became too long, so I am writing a post estimating only the drop rates.
This document is by no means official and is a post with my own speculation added to the data from Inven posts and various YouTubers. If you think, 'My opinion is different. I think the Blackheart drop rate is 0.1%', then your opinion is correct.
1. What are the base drop rates of Blackheart, Ring Box, Dawn, and Refinement Stone?
The Item Drop Rate that affects boss rewards is limited to "Blackheart, Ring Box, Dawn, and Refinement Stone." Other rewards such as Craftsman's Cube, Premium Craftsman's Cube, Magical Scroll, Innocence Scroll, EXP Coupon, Eternal Flame, Incredible Chaos Scroll of Goodness, Weapon Box, Armor Box, and Exceptional Parts are not affected by Item Drop Rate. In order to calculate the "Efficiency of Item Drop Rate on Boss Rewards" that I will write later, I have excluded the remaining other rewards from the drop rate calculation for now.
In conclusion,I estimate the base drop rate of Blackheart to be 0.4%, Ring Box to be 1.5%, Dawn to be 2.5%, Guardian Angel Ring to be 5.3%, and Refinement Stone to be 3.3% based on Hard difficulty.I am estimating.
There are no statistical posts about Blackheart and Dawn that have been released over hundreds of times. However, as a result of Googling for drop rates, there was a 1000-acquisition data in the "Positive Cookie" YouTuber's internal affairs content. (Source:https://www.youtube.com/@PCOOKIEE)
In the video (internal affairs) of the YouTuber, the Blackheart drop rate was approximately 3.5% and the Dawn drop rate was 15% when a 300% drop rate was applied. This is a total of 400% = 100% (base Item Drop Rate) + 300% (additional Item Drop Rate), so to convert it to the base drop rate, divide each by 400%. (I will explain why I estimate it as a linear function in section 2.) Calculating,
Blackheart base drop rate = 3.5% / 4 = 0.875%
Dawn base drop rate = 15% / 4 = 3.75%
It is. However, since the YouTuber is a Reboot server user, it is a somewhat probability-corrected figure.
Therefore, I counted the number of various rewards through the recent 20 months of data (July 2022 ~ February 2024) (+additional) from Malgeum's YouTube, who is a regular server user. (Source:https://www.youtube.com/@Malgum.)Malgeum runs Hard bosses for 4 weeks a month.
First, the overall bosses are as follows.
Dawn Drop Boss: 24 bosses per month (LuWillJinDunkelTheSeren)
Guardian Angel Ring Drop Boss: 4 bosses per month (Guardian Angel Slime)
Blackheart Drop Boss: 33 bosses per month (SuDaeluWillJinDunkelTheSeren + Kalos)
Seed Ring Drop Boss: 45 bosses per month (SuDaeluWillJinDunkelSlimeSerenKalosKaling + Kalos)
Refinement Stone Drop Boss: 8 bosses per month (KalosKaling)
2022
July 0 Blackheart 2 Dawn
August 2 Blackheart (Lucid's Eye, Black Heart) 1 Dawn 1 Guardian Angel Ring
September 1 Blackheart (Magician's Tome) 2 Guardian Angel Ring
October 0 Blackheart 2 Dawn 1 Guardian Angel Ring
November 0 Blackheart 2 Dawn 1 Guardian Angel Ring
December 1 Blackheart (Commander Force Ring) 2 Dawn
2023
January 0 Blackheart 6 Dawn 2 Guardian Angel Ring
February 0 Blackheart 4 Dawn
March 1 Blackheart (Lucid's Eye) 1 Dawn 2 Guardian Angel Ring
April 0 Blackheart 5 Dawn 0 Guardian Angel Ring
May 1 Blackheart (Lucid's Eye) 3 Dawn 2 Guardian Angel Ring (Excluding Kaling 41 bosses)
June 1 Blackheart (Unstable Fissure) 8 Dawn 3 Guardian Angel Ring 1 Ring Box (Excluding Kaling 41 bosses, Seed Ring patch, from the 3rd week, Seed Ring boss 21 times)
July 1 Blackheart (Giant Threat) 1 Dawn 1 Guardian Angel Ring 4Ring Box
August 0 Blackheart 1 Dawn 5Ring Box
September 1 Blackheart (Magician's Tome) 4 Dawn 1Ring Box1 Refinement Stone (Refinement Stone patch)
October 0 Blackheart 4 Dawn 2 Guardian Angel Ring 4Ring Box
November 1 Blackheart (Dream Belt) 0 Dawn 2Ring Box2 Refinement Stone
December 0 Blackheart 4 Dawn 1 Guardian Angel Ring 2Ring Box3 Refinement Stone
2024
January 1 Blackheart (Genesis Badge) 2 Dawn 1 Guardian Angel Ring 2Ring Box1 Refinement Stone
February 1 Blackheart (Black Heart) 2 Dawn 2Ring Box
Total Ring Box [[ 23 Ring Box / 381 bosses ]] = 6.0%
Total Blackheart [[ 12 Blackheart / 660 bosses ]] = 1.8%
Total Dawn [[ 54 Dawn / 480 bosses ]] = 11.25% (excluding Guardian Angel Ring)
Total Guardian Angel Ring [[19 Guardian Angel Ring / 80 bosses ]] = 23.75%
Total Refinement Stone [[ 7 Refinement Stone / 48 bosses ]] = 14%
At this time, Malgeum's party has gone to Normal Kaling and Kalos, but most of them went as Hard Kaling + Chaos Kalos party, so in the case of Refinement Stone, Hard Kaling + Chaos Kalos is the standard.Also, Malgeum has never disclosed the drop rate, but considering that he is a super high-spec player, it seems that he acquired the rewards at a full drop rate of 326%. (200% (equipment) + 20% (ability) + 12% (artifact) + 24% (Useful Holy Symbol) + 50% (Buff Pet) + 20% (Wealth Acquisition Potion)) Also, if you add the Greed Pendant, the drop rate of 346% is applied to Blackheart and Dawn. (Mitra and Magician's Tome are not applied to Greed, but if you consider them, it becomes too much, so I just calculate it as 346%, and there is not much difference anyway.)
Based on this, if you calculate the base drop rate,
Ring Box base drop rate = 6.0% / 4.26 = 1.41%
Blackheart base drop rate = 1.8% / 4.46 = 0.40%
Dawn base drop rate (excluding Guardian Angel Ring) = 11.25% / 4.46 = 2.52%
Guardian Angel Ring base drop rate = 23.75% / 4.46 = 5.33%
Refinement Stone base drop rate = 14% / 4.26 = 3.28%
If you round to the nearest 0.1% with some error,
Ring Box = 1.4%, Blackheart = 0.4%, Dawn = 2.5%, Guardian Angel Ring = 5.3%, Refinement Stone (Hard) = 3.3%
It is. In addition, if you look at other sources, it is as follows. The following articles are not very reliable, so please refer to them roughly.
https://www.inven.co.kr/board/maple/5746/256763: Item Drop Rate 220%, Ring Box 6.25%, Reboot > Base drop rate estimated at 1.9%
https://www.inven.co.kr/board/maple/5974/2538901: Regular server, Blackheart drop rate estimated at 1%, the author's Item Drop Rate is not presented, but it seems to be about Item Drop Rate 100%, saying that it doubles if it is 300%.
https://www.fmkorea.com/5848428335: Regular server. The author estimates 1.6~2% based on Item Drop Rate 300%.
2. Why do you see it as a linear function rather than a logarithmic function?
I have previously applied a logarithmic function to Sol Erda Fragments and Hot Pink Bundles. A logarithmic function refers to a structure in which the efficiency of the drop rate is reduced as the Item Drop Rate increases. For example,When your Item Drop Rate increases from 0% to 50%, the actual drop increase rate is applied as 50%, but when your Item Drop Rate increases from 250% to 300%, the actual drop increase rate is applied as only 10%.
The commenter in the previous post also raised the question, "I am a full drop, but I couldn't get Blackheart. Isn't Blackheart also a logarithmic function?"However, I see it as a linear function rather than a logarithmic function in boss rewards. The reason is Nexon's notice.

The reason why I thought that a logarithmic function was applied to Fragments and Hot Pink Bundles in the hunting section is because Nexon's notice said that it is applied according to "fixed ratio". Therefore, most users thought that the efficiency decreased as the Item Drop Rate increased. I also thought so, and through actual logarithmic function verification, the hunting sample also appeared similar to the logarithmic function. For this, please refer to the previous post (Meso Acquisition Rate vs. Item Drop Rate, Buff Freezers vs. Buff Pets Efficiency Summary) and Heilman'sSol Erda Fragment Drop Rate Estimation Post.
However, in the case of boss drop rewards,There is no expression of a fixed ratio. If the boss drop rate was a logarithmic function, Nexon would have used the expression 'fixed probability'. Nexon, who has experienced the refund incident, would have reacted sensitively to this notation. The reason for putting the expression "fixed ratio" in Sol Erda Fragments is also seen as a notation to prevent a second refund incident.
Therefore, I don't think there is a possibility that Nexon took a risk and applied a logarithmic function without the notation of "fixed probability". Therefore, I assume a general linear function and estimate that the Item Drop Rate is applied.
3. Wouldn't the drop rate be different for each boss?
Ring BoxIn the case of , it is official that the drop rate is different for each boss. (Source:https://www.inven.co.kr/board/maple/5974/3259803)

The above article shows the consultation content of Nexon PRIME employees that the Ring Box drop rate is different depending on the boss difficulty.
In the case of Refinement Stone, the answer came in the form of "Find out through adventure", which is commonly known. (Source:https://www.inven.co.kr/board/maple/5974/3261260)However, according to users' opinions, it is generally believed that the probability of Refinement Stone is different between Easy and Normal, and Hard.
Then how different is it? There is no separate basis for this, and data has not been accumulated as above. Therefore, the following content is based on 100% my own speculation.
First, in the case of Refinement Stone, I am thinking of Easy1% / Normal 2% / Hard 3% / Extreme 4%. As I will explain in the boss reward efficiency according to Item Drop Rate in the future, Refinement Stone still maintains a high price, so if Easy Kalos is given the same 3% probability as Hard, the expected value of Refinement Stone in Easy Kalos will be abnormally high at 780 million mesos. In this case, most users will have no incentive to do Normal Kalos/Chaos Kalos party.However, if it is set to 1%, the expected value is stabilized to some extent at 260 million mesos.
In the case of Ring Box, I think it will be different by 1%~2% for each boss in addition to the basic 1.5%. For example, in SuDaeluWill + Jin (Normal), which drops mid-level rewards, Hard Suu is 1% and Normal Jin Hilla is 2%. However, since it is cumbersome to calculate like this in the reward efficiency according to Item Drop Rate that I will write later, I will just calculate it by integrating it into 1.5%.
4. Conclusion
Originally, this article was intended to post "Boss Reward Efficiency according to Item Drop Rate". However, the part introducing the process of estimating the drop rate became too long, so I would like to introduce the drop rate of coveted items and the calculation formula first and write it later.Then goodbye!
+Modification) Guardian Angel Ring and general Dawn have been separated. In addition, Malgeum's data has been expanded from the existing 10 months to 20 months to investigate the sample.
MapleStory Inven Tips and Know-howWater36Liters
2024-05-10