Post
Golden Octopus Probability Simulation
=== 100,000 Simulation Result Statistics ===
Average Attempts: 85.75
Number of Escapes: 27570
Average Final Level: 4.95
Statistics by Level:
Level 1:
Average Stays: 1.00
Minimum Stays: 1
Maximum Stays: 1
Reach Probability: 1.0000 (100.00%)
Level 2:
Average Stays: 2.66
Minimum Stays: 1
Maximum Stays: 7
Reach Probability: 1.0000 (100.00%)
Level 3:
Average Stays: 7.83
Minimum Stays: 2
Maximum Stays: 22
Reach Probability: 1.0000 (100.00%)
Level 4:
Average Stays: 22.64
Minimum Stays: 4
Maximum Stays: 53
Reach Probability: 1.0000 (100.00%)
Level 5:
Average Stays: 36.75
Minimum Stays: 6
Maximum Stays: 73
Reach Probability: 1.0000 (100.00%)
Level 6:
Average Stays: 13.45
Minimum Stays: 0
Maximum Stays: 53
Reach Probability: 0.9738 (97.38%)
Level 7:
Average Stays: 1.21
Minimum Stays: 0
Maximum Stays: 23
Reach Probability: 0.3058 (30.58%)
Level 8:
Average Stays: 0.17
Minimum Stays: 0
Maximum Stays: 19
Reach Probability: 0.0469 (4.69%)
Level 9:
Average Stays: 0.03
Minimum Stays: 0
Maximum Stays: 18
Reach Probability: 0.0062 (0.62%)
Maximum Expected Reward:
Level 7: Highest at 305.80.
A balance between a 30.58% reach probability and a 1000 reward.
Attached code below
import random
# 레벨별 성공/실패/도망 확률
transition_probs = {
1: (1.0, 0.0, 0.0),
2: (0.6, 0.4, 0.0),
3: (0.5, 0.5, 0.0),
4: (0.4, 0.6, 0.0),
5: (0.307, 0.693, 0.0),
6: (0.205, 0.765, 0.03),
7: (0.103, 0.857, 0.04),
8: (0.05, 0.90, 0.05)
}
def simulate_once(max_attempts=100):
current_level = 1
level_counts = {i: 0 for i in range(1, 10)} # 각 레벨 머문 횟수
level_counts[current_level] += 1 # 초기 1레벨 카운트
for attempt in range(max_attempts - 1): # 첫 시도 포함하므로 -1
if current_level not in transition_probs: # 9레벨 도달 시 유지
level_counts[current_level] += (max_attempts - attempt - 1)
break
success_prob, fail_prob, run_prob = transition_probs[current_level]
outcome = random.random()
if outcome 0:
level_stats[level]['reached'] += 1
# 통계 계산
print("=== 시뮬레이션 10만 번 결과 통계 ===")
print(f"Average Attempts: {sum(attempts_list) / num_simulations:.2f}")
print(f"Number of Escapes: {sum(1 for a in attempts_list if a
메이플스토리 인벤 팁과노하우안녕내이름
2025-02-20