Post
【Monster Strike】 Detailed Analysis of "Increase! Guaranteed Exciting Gacha" Probability, Expected Value, Receipt/Discard Judgment Criteria 【Zundamon】
This video provides a detailed analysis of the 'Increase It! Guaranteed Heart-Pounding Gacha' event in Monster Strike. It explains the rules of the Gacha, target characters, expected value, 1-point snipe success rate, and the judgment criteria for whether to receive or discard the Gacha results. Zundamon presents a Gacha strategy using various tables and helps viewers make rational decisions.
1. 🎮 'Increase It! Guaranteed Heart-Pounding Gacha' Event Detailed Rules Explanation: Guaranteed Count Increase System
- ✅ You can perform an All-Star 10-pull Gacha for free every day for 7 days.
- ✅ You can receive or discard the Gacha results each day.
- ✅ If discarded, the number of ★5 or higher guaranteed slots in the next day's 10-pull Gacha will increase by the number of ★5 or higher characters acquired in that 10-pull Gacha.
- ⚠️ If you acquire 2 or more ★5 characters in the first day's 10-pull and discard it, you will perform a 10-pull Gacha with 2 guaranteed slots on the second day.
| Action | Result |
|---|---|
| Receive Gacha Result | Guaranteed slots reset the next day |
| Discard Gacha Result | Guaranteed slots increase the next day (by the number of ★5 or higher characters acquired) |
00:02 - 00:46
1. 🎮 'Increase It! Guaranteed Heart-Pounding Gacha' Event Detailed Rules Explanation: Guaranteed Count Increase System
- ✅ You can perform an All-Star 10-pull Gacha for free every day for 7 days.
- ✅ You can receive or discard the Gacha results each day.
- ✅ If discarded, the number of ★5 or higher guaranteed slots in the next day's 10-pull Gacha will increase by the number of ★5 or higher characters acquired in that 10-pull Gacha.
- ⚠️ If you acquire 2 or more ★5 characters in the first day's 10-pull and discard it, you will perform a 10-pull Gacha with 2 guaranteed slots on the second day.
| Action | Result |
|---|---|
| Receive Gacha Result | Guaranteed slots reset the next day |
| Discard Gacha Result | Guaranteed slots increase the next day (by the number of ★5 or higher characters acquired) |
00:47 - 01:44
2. 💡 Basic Strategy and Detailed Judgment Criteria: Selection Based on Whether Acquired Characters Exist
- ✅ If there are 0 ★5/6 characters: There is no reason to discard, so receive and use them to nurture monsters.
- ✅ If there is 1 or more ★5/6 characters: If there is a desired character, receive it; if not, discard it to increase the guaranteed slots for the next day.
- ⚠️ When acquiring an unowned character: Determine whether it is a character you want and decide whether to receive/discard it.
01:45 - 02:41
3. 🎯 Gacha Target Characters and Expected Value Analysis: Excluding Characters After November
- ✅ Target Characters: All regular and limited-time characters except for characters released after November 2023 (Agastia, Scathach, Mulan, Agrippina)
- ✅ Total of 653 types (512 regular, 141 limited-time)
- ✅ Assume the appearance probability of ★5 or higher characters other than the guaranteed slot is the same as the regular Gacha at 12%
- ✅ Expected value of ★5/6 characters when performing 70 Gacha pulls: 8.4 if all results are received
02:42 - 03:27
4. 📊 Gacha Expected Value and 1-Point Snipe Success Rate: High 1-Point Snipe Probability
- ✅ The expected value of ★5/6 characters decreases by 0.12 each time the Gacha is discarded.
- ✅ 1-Point Snipe Success Rate: 3.9% (relatively high)
- ✅ Probability of acquiring 1 out of 5 desired characters: 18.1%
- ✅ Probability of acquiring 1 out of 10 desired characters: 33.1%
- ✅ Probability of acquiring 1 out of 20 desired characters: 55.5%
03:28 - 04:12
5. ✨ Comparative Analysis with Past Gacha Events: Playback Gacha Replacement Potential
- ✅ Comparison of 1-point snipe success rates in past Gacha events:
- Skeleton Gacha: 5.4%
- Regular Chance Up Gacha: 4.0%
- Playback Gacha: 3.8%
- ✅ 'Increase It! Guaranteed Heart-Pounding Gacha' has a slightly higher 1-point snipe success rate than the Playback Gacha.
- ✅ This Gacha may serve as a substitute for the Playback Gacha.
04:13 - 05:32
6. 📈 Detailed Analysis of Gacha Result Receiving/Discarding Judgment Criteria: Utilizing Remaining Gacha Expected Value
- ✅ Use a table summarizing the average number of ★5/6 characters that can be acquired from the remaining Gacha when all Gacha results are discarded.
- ✅ Example: After acquiring 3 ★5/6 characters (including unowned limited-time characters) in 20 pulls, discarding the Gacha results allows you to acquire an average of 25.8 ★5/6 characters from the remaining 50 pulls.
- ✅ Receiving the results allows you to acquire an average of 15.4 ★5/6 characters from the remaining Gacha.
- ✅ Decide whether to receive or discard the Gacha results through quantitative judgment.
05:33 - 06:44
7. 🎯 How to Use the 1-Point/10-Point Snipe Success Rate Table: Comparing the Probability of Acquiring Desired Characters
- ✅ Use the 1-point/10-point snipe success rate table to determine whether to receive/discard the Gacha.
- ✅ Example: After acquiring 4 ★5/6 characters in 30 pulls, discarding it gives you a 28.8% chance of acquiring 1 out of 10 desired characters.
- ✅ Receiving it gives you a 14.3% chance of acquiring 1 out of 10 desired characters.
- ✅ Decide whether to challenge the higher probability after discarding or aim for additional characters with a lower probability after receiving.
06:45 - 07:14
8. ❗ Gacha Strategy Core: The First Day's Gacha Result is Very Important
- ✅ The first day's Gacha result is very important as it greatly affects subsequent Gacha pulls.
- ✅ It is advantageous to acquire as many ★5/6 characters as possible on the first day.
- ✅ Focus on the first day's Gacha and try to get good results.