Post
Warhammer 40K Latest Win Rate Analysis After Balance Update: Who is dominating the meta?This is an in-depth analysis of each army's win rate and play status based on tournament data from the first few weeks after the recent Warhammer 40K balance update. Necrons, T'au Empire, Deathwatch, and Thousand Sons are showing strong performance, dominating the meta, with specific detachments and army lists standing out at the top.
1. 🎮 Overview of the Meta After the Latest Balance Update
· We analyzed tournament data from the first few weeks after the final balance patch for Warhammer 40K 10th Edition.
· This analysis covers the most played armies, top tournament armies, overall faction win rates, key detachment win rates, and the winning army lists from the largest tournaments.
· Data was primarily sourced from stats.hutber.com, with reference to other excellent statistics sites.
· This analysis covers the most played armies, top tournament armies, overall faction win rates, key detachment win rates, and the winning army lists from the largest tournaments.
· Data was primarily sourced from stats.hutber.com, with reference to other excellent statistics sites.
00:00 - 01:41
1. 🎮 Overview of the Meta After the Latest Balance Update
· We analyzed tournament data from the first few weeks after the final balance patch for Warhammer 40K 10th Edition.
· This analysis covers the most played armies, top tournament armies, overall faction win rates, key detachment win rates, and the winning army lists from the largest tournaments.
· Data was primarily sourced from stats.hutber.com, with reference to other excellent statistics sites.
· This analysis covers the most played armies, top tournament armies, overall faction win rates, key detachment win rates, and the winning army lists from the largest tournaments.
· Data was primarily sourced from stats.hutber.com, with reference to other excellent statistics sites.
01:42 - 03:43
2. ⚔️ Most Played Army Rankings
· Necrons remain strong as the most played army with 760 games, surpassing Space Marines (715 games).
· Among Space Marines, Ultramarines are popular with the Gladius or Blade of Ultramar detachments.
· Astra Militarum, Tyranids, Chaos Space Marines, and T'au Empire follow, with T'au seeing an increase in play due to the strength of Twin Lance.
· Death Guard and World Eaters have seen a slight drop in popularity since their Codex release, while Thousand Sons recorded higher-than-usual play numbers due to their strong performance.
· Imperial Knights, Aeldari, and Chaos Knights had fewer plays than usual, and Imperial Agents, Genestealer Cults, and Deathwatch showed the lowest play numbers.
· Among Space Marines, Ultramarines are popular with the Gladius or Blade of Ultramar detachments.
· Astra Militarum, Tyranids, Chaos Space Marines, and T'au Empire follow, with T'au seeing an increase in play due to the strength of Twin Lance.
· Death Guard and World Eaters have seen a slight drop in popularity since their Codex release, while Thousand Sons recorded higher-than-usual play numbers due to their strong performance.
· Imperial Knights, Aeldari, and Chaos Knights had fewer plays than usual, and Imperial Agents, Genestealer Cults, and Deathwatch showed the lowest play numbers.
03:44 - 05:18
3. 🏆 Top Tournament Armies (Undefeated Records)
· Looking at armies that achieved 5-0 undefeated records or event wins, Necrons lead with 6 lists, including the Cursed Legion, Awakened Dynasties, Star Shatter Arsenal, and Koptic Courts detachments.
· Chaos Space Marines took second place with 5 lists (Renegade Raiders, Huron's Marauders).
· Space Marines followed with 4 lists (Ultramarines' Blade of Ultramar or Gladius Task Force).
· Tyranids (Invasion Fleet), Deathwatch (Black Spear), and Thousand Sons (Rubric Phalanx, Grand Coven) each secured 3 wins.
· T'au (Mont'ka), Blood Angels (Rage Cursed, Liberators), and Orks (Freebooterz, Waaagh! Horde) each recorded 2 wins.
· Most factions have at least one undefeated record, suggesting that the overall balance is not bad.
· Chaos Space Marines took second place with 5 lists (Renegade Raiders, Huron's Marauders).
· Space Marines followed with 4 lists (Ultramarines' Blade of Ultramar or Gladius Task Force).
· Tyranids (Invasion Fleet), Deathwatch (Black Spear), and Thousand Sons (Rubric Phalanx, Grand Coven) each secured 3 wins.
· T'au (Mont'ka), Blood Angels (Rage Cursed, Liberators), and Orks (Freebooterz, Waaagh! Horde) each recorded 2 wins.
· Most factions have at least one undefeated record, suggesting that the overall balance is not bad.
06:36 - 12:31
4. 📊 Army Tournament Win Rate Analysis
· Data with fewer than 200 games should be used for reference only, as reliability is low.
· Win Rate Below 45%: Imperial Agents, Emperor's Children (41%), Dark Angels, Astra Militarum. These are expected to see their win rates rise as more data accumulates.
· 45-47% Win Rate: Death Guard, Blood Angels, Space Wolves, Adeptus Mechanicus (45-46%), Drukhari (47%, Spectacle of Spite remains strong), Space Marines (47%, Gladius and Blade of Ultramar are above average), Aeldari (47%, insufficient data).
· 48-49% Win Rate: Orks, Black Templars (Bastion Task Force strong), World Eaters, Leagues of Votann, Chaos Daemons (nerf impact), Chaos Knights (decreased player count, reliance on Dual Gatling Despoiler).
· 50% Win Rate: Chaos Space Marines (boosted by Huron's Marauders).
· 51-53% Win Rate: Imperial Knights (51%, insufficient data, expected to drop), Tyranids (51%, a good week), Genestealer Cults, Grey Knights (insufficient data), Adeptus Custodes (53%, Talons of the Emperor with triple Land Raider combo is strong).
· 54-56% Win Rate (Top Tier): Thousand Sons (54%, no nerfs, powerful damage), Sisters (55%, insufficient data), Necrons (55%, over 750 games, C'tan still strong, Awakened Dynasties), T'au Empire (55%, Twin Lance efficiency), Deathwatch (56%, low player count, might slightly decrease in reality but still powerful).
· Win Rate Below 45%: Imperial Agents, Emperor's Children (41%), Dark Angels, Astra Militarum. These are expected to see their win rates rise as more data accumulates.
· 45-47% Win Rate: Death Guard, Blood Angels, Space Wolves, Adeptus Mechanicus (45-46%), Drukhari (47%, Spectacle of Spite remains strong), Space Marines (47%, Gladius and Blade of Ultramar are above average), Aeldari (47%, insufficient data).
· 48-49% Win Rate: Orks, Black Templars (Bastion Task Force strong), World Eaters, Leagues of Votann, Chaos Daemons (nerf impact), Chaos Knights (decreased player count, reliance on Dual Gatling Despoiler).
· 50% Win Rate: Chaos Space Marines (boosted by Huron's Marauders).
· 51-53% Win Rate: Imperial Knights (51%, insufficient data, expected to drop), Tyranids (51%, a good week), Genestealer Cults, Grey Knights (insufficient data), Adeptus Custodes (53%, Talons of the Emperor with triple Land Raider combo is strong).
· 54-56% Win Rate (Top Tier): Thousand Sons (54%, no nerfs, powerful damage), Sisters (55%, insufficient data), Necrons (55%, over 750 games, C'tan still strong, Awakened Dynasties), T'au Empire (55%, Twin Lance efficiency), Deathwatch (56%, low player count, might slightly decrease in reality but still powerful).
| Army | Win Rate | Games Played |
|---|---|---|
| Imperial Agents | Below 41% | Low |
| Emperor's Children | 41% | Low |
| Dark Angels | Below 41% | Low |
| Astra Militarum | Below 41% | High |
| Death Guard | 45-46% | Medium |
| Blood Angels | 45-46% | Medium |
| Space Wolves | 45-46% | Low |
| Adeptus Mechanicus | 45-46% | Low |
| Drukhari | 47% | Medium |
| Space Marines | 47% | High |
| Aeldari | 47% | Low |
| Orks | 48-49% | Medium |
| Black Templars | 48-49% | Low |
| World Eaters | 48-49% | Medium |
| Leagues of Votann | 48-49% | Medium |
| Chaos Daemons | 48-49% | Medium |
| Chaos Knights | 48-49% | Low |
| Chaos Space Marines | 50% | High |
| Imperial Knights | 51% | Low |
| Tyranids | 51% | High |
| Genestealer Cults | 51% | Low |
| Grey Knights | 51% | Low |
| Adeptus Custodes | 53% | Medium |
| Thousand Sons | 54% | Medium |
| Sisters | 55% | Low |
| Necrons | 55% | High |
| T'au Empire | 55% | Medium |
| Deathwatch | 56% | Low |
12:32 - 14:10
5. 🛡️ Top Detachment Win Rate Rankings
· This is a list of top-performing detachments with records of 100 games or more.
· Adeptus Custodes' Talons of the Emperor recorded the highest win rate. This is likely due to many skilled tournament players utilizing a unique list featuring 3 Land Raiders.
· Sisters' Martyrs detachment took second place, boasting powerful characters and strong melee capabilities.
· Deathwatch's Black Spear, Chaos Space Marines' Huron's Marauders, and Thousand Sons' Rubric Phalanx also showed high win rates.
· For Necrons, Awakened Dynasty and Star Shatter Arsenal ranked high, while Drukhari's Spectacle of Spite, T'au's Mont'ka, and Space Marines' Blade of Ultramar also performed well.
· Adeptus Custodes' Talons of the Emperor recorded the highest win rate. This is likely due to many skilled tournament players utilizing a unique list featuring 3 Land Raiders.
· Sisters' Martyrs detachment took second place, boasting powerful characters and strong melee capabilities.
· Deathwatch's Black Spear, Chaos Space Marines' Huron's Marauders, and Thousand Sons' Rubric Phalanx also showed high win rates.
· For Necrons, Awakened Dynasty and Star Shatter Arsenal ranked high, while Drukhari's Spectacle of Spite, T'au's Mont'ka, and Space Marines' Blade of Ultramar also performed well.
| Detachment | Faction | Features |
|---|---|---|
| Talons of the Emperor | Adeptus Custodes | High win rate, 3 Land Raider combo |
| Martyrs | Sisters | Strong characters, melee attacks |
| Black Spear | Deathwatch | High win rate |
| Huron's Marauders | Chaos Space Marines | Infantry units +1 to hit |
| Rubric Phalanx | Thousand Sons | Better performance than Grand Coven |
| Awakened Dynasty | Necrons | C'tan synergy |
| Star Shatter Arsenal | Necrons | High win rate |
| Spectacle of Spite | Drukhari | Still powerful |
| Mont'ka | T'au Empire | Top performance |
| Blade of Ultramar | Space Marines | Strong alongside Gladius Task Force |
14:11 - 18:44
6. 🥇 Analysis of Major Tournament Winning Army Lists
· We analyzed the winning army lists from large-scale tournaments with 6 or more rounds and over 64 players.
· Iron Hands Space Marines, Necrons, Tyranids, Deathwatch, and Chaos Daemons took home victories.
Necrons (Matthew Carr - Cascade Clash Winner)
· Detachment: Awakened Dynasty
· Key Units: Triple C'tan (Nightbringer Deciever, Void Dragon), Illuminor Szeras, Necron Overlord, Wraith units, Reanimators, Scoring Chaff.
· Features: Focuses on leader Necrons but still leverages the strong datasheet advantages of Triple C'tan. Illuminor and Necron Overlord are tricky to deal with due to their conditional Lone Operative and resurrection abilities.
Chaos Daemons (Logan Antonation - Wit City Open Winner)
· Detachment: Scintillating Legion
· Key Units: Be'lakor, 3 Lords of Change, Kairos Fateweaver, 2 Tzeentch Fluxmasters, Plaguebearers, Screamers, Beasts of Nurgle, Horrors.
· Features: A Tzeentch-centric list despite nerfs, utilizing Flux tokens to put units into reserves or amplify shooting damage. Be'lakor excels at preventing shooting, while Kairos is strong at manipulating Command Points and indirect fire.
Tyranids (Julian Hingle - 6-Round Tournament Winner)
· Detachment: Invasion Fleet
· Key Units: Tyrant Guard units, Neurotyrant, Hive Tyrant (Adaptive Biology), Hive Guard (Mixed Armaments), Endless Multitude, 3 Lictors, Biovores, Venomthropes, Raveners, Norn Emissary.
· Features: An interesting mixed list utilizing Hyper Adaptation and Feel No Pain strategies. The defensive capabilities of Tyrant Guard and the synergy of various units stand out.
Deathwatch (Liam Stetto - Cornwall Super Bash Winner)
· Detachment: Black Spear
· Key Units: Watch Master (Tome of Exoclad), Deathwatch Veterans (Melee-focused), 2 Indomitor Kill Teams (Firepower-focused), 3 Fortis Kill Teams (Plasma Incinerators), Venerable Launcher, Incursors.
· Features: Utilizes the heroic intervention abilities of Judas and Beacon Angelis, maximizing mission tactics and battlefield movement with powerful firepower and efficient units.
Space Warriors (Colorado Cup Winner)
· Detachment: Hammer of Averie
· Key Units: 2 Assault Terminator Squads (Coco Barr, Terminator Captain), 2 Vindicators, 2 Ballistus Dreadnoughts, Storm Speeder Hammerstrike.
· Features: A Terminator-focused list that dominates the mid-board with Coco Barr's support and the Terminator Captain's resurrection ability. Vindicators and Dreadnoughts eliminate enemies with powerful firepower.
· Iron Hands Space Marines, Necrons, Tyranids, Deathwatch, and Chaos Daemons took home victories.
Necrons (Matthew Carr - Cascade Clash Winner)
· Detachment: Awakened Dynasty
· Key Units: Triple C'tan (Nightbringer Deciever, Void Dragon), Illuminor Szeras, Necron Overlord, Wraith units, Reanimators, Scoring Chaff.
· Features: Focuses on leader Necrons but still leverages the strong datasheet advantages of Triple C'tan. Illuminor and Necron Overlord are tricky to deal with due to their conditional Lone Operative and resurrection abilities.
Chaos Daemons (Logan Antonation - Wit City Open Winner)
· Detachment: Scintillating Legion
· Key Units: Be'lakor, 3 Lords of Change, Kairos Fateweaver, 2 Tzeentch Fluxmasters, Plaguebearers, Screamers, Beasts of Nurgle, Horrors.
· Features: A Tzeentch-centric list despite nerfs, utilizing Flux tokens to put units into reserves or amplify shooting damage. Be'lakor excels at preventing shooting, while Kairos is strong at manipulating Command Points and indirect fire.
Tyranids (Julian Hingle - 6-Round Tournament Winner)
· Detachment: Invasion Fleet
· Key Units: Tyrant Guard units, Neurotyrant, Hive Tyrant (Adaptive Biology), Hive Guard (Mixed Armaments), Endless Multitude, 3 Lictors, Biovores, Venomthropes, Raveners, Norn Emissary.
· Features: An interesting mixed list utilizing Hyper Adaptation and Feel No Pain strategies. The defensive capabilities of Tyrant Guard and the synergy of various units stand out.
Deathwatch (Liam Stetto - Cornwall Super Bash Winner)
· Detachment: Black Spear
· Key Units: Watch Master (Tome of Exoclad), Deathwatch Veterans (Melee-focused), 2 Indomitor Kill Teams (Firepower-focused), 3 Fortis Kill Teams (Plasma Incinerators), Venerable Launcher, Incursors.
· Features: Utilizes the heroic intervention abilities of Judas and Beacon Angelis, maximizing mission tactics and battlefield movement with powerful firepower and efficient units.
Space Warriors (Colorado Cup Winner)
· Detachment: Hammer of Averie
· Key Units: 2 Assault Terminator Squads (Coco Barr, Terminator Captain), 2 Vindicators, 2 Ballistus Dreadnoughts, Storm Speeder Hammerstrike.
· Features: A Terminator-focused list that dominates the mid-board with Coco Barr's support and the Terminator Captain's resurrection ability. Vindicators and Dreadnoughts eliminate enemies with powerful firepower.
